22 January 2018

I closed my bitcoin futures in a loss as the price struggled to rise. Crypto prices have been performing badly recently, and I believe the tendency will keep continuing. Apple announced repatriation of its foreign cash reserves in excess of $250bln which is a good sign for the US economy. If other major cash holding…

15 January 2018

The dollar kept falling this week the international growth pushed investors further to sell the dollar. I do not have a strong conviction on currencies at the moment. So far, Europe seems to be on the right track, ECB is likely to move faster to hit a brake on bond buying which is expected. It…

08 January 2018 – The year looks solid. so far…

The year started with rising in stocks, cryptos, oil, gold. Everything so far so good… The portfolio experienced the biggest gain from BABA stock. I did not trade much this week as I am evaluating my thesis on markets again. Oil is at the level that needs a reassessment since it broke the 2-year long range…

29 December 2017 – Better than expected year end.

2017 was a good year as the portfolio did outperform both SP500 and Dow index by a large difference going up above 50%. Oil and stocks were the major movers of the performance. How 2018 will play out will be starting to be shaped by US policies, ECB and BOJ plan on QE, Brexit talks….

18 December 2017

As I was busy during the past two weeks on other matters, I could not really follow the news and make trades. However, I added bitcoin futures to my position and increased oil exposure dramatically. I believe oil price rally is not over. The global economic growth and demand is robust and will likely be…

4 December 2017

The week was quite memorable as OPEC agreed to extend the production cut deal for an additional 9 months till the end of 2018 as expected. The oil market did not react to news as the probability of the deal was quite high and prices had been adjusted. More interestingly, Senate finally passed the tax…

27 November 2017 – Merkel Coalition Failure.

The portfolio did better this week mostly thanks to stocks and oil prices. The dollar fell as expected as I was shorting it and going long in yen and euro but the fall was more than I had expected. I need to revisit my thesis on currencies but overall, I believe there is still room…

20 November 2017

The portfolio did not move much as losses on stocks were offset by gains in oil. The dollar fell against other currencies and I believe that will likely to continue in the near future when tax reform stays behind and Trump moves to trade policies. FED rate hikes will not matter much. Considering the fact…

13 November 2017 – Alert Level – Code RED.

The portfolio gained around 2% during the week mostly thanks to oil. I reduced my positions in Amazon and added Alibaba and increased the position in Facebook and also went short SP500 which I mentioned about it in the previous post, however, as I got the news late that the Senate considers delaying business tax cut…

6 November 2017 – MBS watching too much GOT?

The portfolio performed better this week thanks to oil prices and  AAPL, FB stocks going up. As mentioned in the previous post, oil prices have not lost its momentum. I reduced my positions by half in the anticipation of price correction but that did not realize so, I added back some. Overall, exposure to oil…

30 October 2017 – Oil bulls in Hallelujah mood.

The portfolio experienced its best weekly gain thanks to around 5% rise in oil prices. It was an interesting week: Rising oil prices, Catalonia announcing independence, ECB deciding to continue QE program through September 2018 but reducing bond buying amount from 60bln to 30bln from the beginning of the year.  My conviction on rising oil…