4 December 2017

The week was quite memorable as OPEC agreed to extend the production cut deal for an additional 9 months till the end of 2018 as expected. The oil market did not react to news as the probability of the deal was quite high and prices had been adjusted. More interestingly, Senate finally passed the tax…

27 November 2017 – Merkel Coalition Failure.

The portfolio did better this week mostly thanks to stocks and oil prices. The dollar fell as expected as I was shorting it and going long in yen and euro but the fall was more than I had expected. I need to revisit my thesis on currencies but overall, I believe there is still room…

20 November 2017

The portfolio did not move much as losses on stocks were offset by gains in oil. The dollar fell against other currencies and I believe that will likely to continue in the near future when tax reform stays behind and Trump moves to trade policies. FED rate hikes will not matter much. Considering the fact…

13 November 2017 – Alert Level – Code RED.

The portfolio gained around 2% during the week mostly thanks to oil. I reduced my positions in Amazon and added Alibaba and increased the position in Facebook and also went short SP500 which I mentioned about it in the previous post, however, as I got the news late that the Senate considers delaying business tax cut…

6 November 2017 – MBS watching too much GOT?

The portfolio performed better this week thanks to oil prices and  AAPL, FB stocks going up. As mentioned in the previous post, oil prices have not lost its momentum. I reduced my positions by half in the anticipation of price correction but that did not realize so, I added back some. Overall, exposure to oil…

30 October 2017 – Oil bulls in Hallelujah mood.

The portfolio experienced its best weekly gain thanks to around 5% rise in oil prices. It was an interesting week: Rising oil prices, Catalonia announcing independence, ECB deciding to continue QE program through September 2018 but reducing bond buying amount from 60bln to 30bln from the beginning of the year.  My conviction on rising oil…

20 October 2017 – Xi with full speed

The portfolio went up this week due to gains in oil and Paypal (PYPL) which ended up with better than expected quarterly results. I believe the steam in PYPL has not stopped, the company is going to be king in digital payments. I reduced my oil positions and added back some later, ending up with…

13 October 2017 – Iran is in trouble. Once again.

Oil I increased my exposure to oil considerably based on the expectation that Trump will not certify Iran deal which turned out to be right on Friday. Trump detest Iran policies and will do everything to hurt them. Now, Congress has 60 days to take measures. Europe stayed intact in their approach towards the deal…

6 October 2017 – hola independencia!

Oil’s price fall this week negatively affected portfolio performance. The fall was due to rising production over again which makes sense. However, I have not changed my view on oil so far. I expect it to rise further as OPEC comes to an agreement to extend production cuts. Saudi King visited Moscow for the first…

29 September 2017 – TAX cuts on the horizon? Probably in 2019.

The portfolio was up 1 % during the past week as oil prices rose 2% in anticipation of rebalancing. I closed part of my positions after the rally but still hold futures contracts.     I am building a strong conviction that oil prices will keep increasing due to OPEC cuts, Saudi’s interest in higher…

Margin of Safety — Seth Klarman

    Chapter 1  1. Investment success requires an appropriate mindset. Investing is serious business, not entertainment. If you participate in the financial markets at all, it is crucial to do so as an investor, not as a speculator, and to be certain that you understand the difference.  Investors who take advantage of Mr. Market’s periodic irrationality, by…

22 September – The Big Week!

The portfolio did not move much, it had a slight decline due to my late exit from gold positions. Oil positions did fairly well. I increased my positions on PayPal more. Will look for more stocks to buy in the future. The week was remembered by Trump speech to UN, FED speech, OPEC meeting on…