12 October 2016

I bought oil before and made a return on that. Now I am bullish on oil. Currently I am bullish in dollar and short in yen and pound. 

I think oil will go higher as market participants will hold on to OPEC view but mostly speculators will not dare to short oil in this climate unless something worthwhile information hits the market. Till then oil can rally slowly higher till next OPEC meeting.
Speculators have shorted pound tremendously due to hard Brexit but reality diverges from expectations as GDP numbers have been in favor of UK economy and inflation is expected to go higher. BOE was thinking about rate cuts but now likelihood is slim. Cut in rates would take pound further down and cause higher than needed inflation. On the other hand falling pound might help UK to close its trade deficit in coming months and years. after Brexit if it is going to be hard separation from EU, Britain can and with certainty will get worse than current trade deals from EU. so, falling pound is in favor of the economy. as pound trades around 1.22 against dollar, it might not be able to sustain those numbers for a long time unless another bad news comes out. Because reality is, current Brexit has not in reality hurt UK economy but expectations of market participants did. Britain is still part of EU and trade deals are still in place. Expectations of the future however has reshaped financial assets and prices. So therefore, there is divergence from equilibrium. Despite being short in pound for now, i might change my trade and go long on pound if i see rebound momentum is sustained. Till then , will hold onto my shorted pounds.

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