29 March 2017- Novruz break + personal break

I did not do much trading for the past other than getting in for bond trading and gold for a short period of time. Positive performance was mostly due to stock bull market. If I had not traded at all, I would have made more than what I realized. I cut back on my stock positions a few days ago when Dow started to decline a couple of days in a row while making me think that burst is on its way, but it seems I was wrong for now. Prices started to go up again.

For the period I could not devote most of my time to investing as CFA exam is approaching. Probably the same will happen for the next 2 months. Unfortunately, this time, I could not read much news as well, keeping me obsolete. Not a good feeling after all. I will be back on track to keep a close eye on economies and politics.

I am still bullish on gold. Gold fell to 1200$ level and rebounded back later, I should have spent some time and go long at that period but I missed a rally. It does not matter how many times you are right, what matters is your execution and how long you stick to your right ideas. That is when you make money.

Oil is not looking good again. Inventories rose and are at high levels, US producers started hedging most of their barrels around 50 -60$ per barrel compared to 42$ in 2016. That will put a cap on rising oil prices.

That further means, shale producers will not cut their spending and will keep production. The market will be oversupplied again. But before jumping into bearish view, next OPEC decision is the key factor on where prices will go. If OPEC decides to keep production cut for the next some time, that will give a boost to the oil prices ibn the short term and many speculators will likely try to seize the opportunity. If no deal, answer anything that sounds a little pessimistic, that is enough for plunging of oil prices. I will stay cautious on the matter and see where policies are going. My initial judgment is however, they will try to reach sort of agreement rather than fail. Higher oil prices are in the best interests of everyone as Saudi Aramco IPO is also on the horizon for the next year. I do not expect anything dramatic from OPEC at least from Saudi Arabia.

Stocks. So far, I have not written much on stocks because I have not done much analysis or say none at all so far. I am sure you can find a better analysis of overall stock market movement in somewhere else rather than here. All I can say is I am riding with the tide as long as it is blowing in the same direction. The largest investment I have got is Apple and will stick to that for a longer period.

Bonds. FED raised the rates once again to 0.75- 1% interval from 0.5 -0.75% by 25 points. I shorted bond futures before the decision became official ( 100% probability was there for the hike, though), and I lost. Instead of falling prices which usually goes against the rate direction, it went up and the reason was the pessimistic view of investors that FED did not commit to more rate hikes. That is something I added to my list of unexpected lists. So, to keep a note, even if rates rise, that does not mean bonds will fall.

Currencies. I mostly ignored currency movements. Rates have been moving in a range except for Yen which became stronger as a safe heaven currency. I can not clearly see where yen goes, neither pound and euro. Article 50 was triggered today, and 2-year negotiations with EU started. So inflation in the UK and breaking news from negotiations will drive the currency against other majors.

 

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